COVID-19 Weekly Watch MASKS AND FORECASTS EDITION: Nov 2 - 9

COVID-19 Weekly Watch MASKS AND FORECASTS EDITION: Nov 2 – 9

November 10, 2020

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Authors: Azra K. Nurkic, Chelsea Raubenheimer, Bridget Lavin

With the dramatic presidential election at the top of national headlines this week, the worsening COVID-19 crisis in the United States may have not received the air time it deserved. On November 5th, as Americans held their breaths waiting to hear who would be their next president, the daily coronavirus case count reached its all time high, surpassing the daily case count of any other country.

Without a coherent national strategy to combat the spread, responsibility has fallen on the shoulders of the states, whose policies vary widely. Only 33 states, for one, have state-wide mask mandates, despite official forecasts predicting that thousands of lives could be saved if everyone just wore a mask. But predicting the behavior of individuals proves difficult, as models show multiple potential future realities with a variance of over 500,000 cases between the most optimistic and pessimistic predictions. What does remain clear is the long road ahead, as Americans continue to grapple with the best approach to survive a pandemic.

Additional stats from this week include:

– U.S. surpassed 10 million cumulative cases this week.

– With 238K deaths, and the continuous surge, US has set a new daily record of reported cases: 141,769

– 1 in 33 Americans has now tested positive for COVID-19 (compared to 1 in 78 in July)

– Idaho, Oklahoma and Wyoming are the three U.S. states with no statewide mask mandate and correspondingly lowest mask wearing practices (below 68%)

– The ensemble forecast predicts that anywhere between 450,000 to 960,000 new cases will likely be reported the week ending November 28, 2020.

– As of this week, 33 states have statewide mask mandates. Others have regional or metropolitan mandates.

– According to IHME, 130,000 lives could be saved by Feb 2021 with universal mask mandate.

– Projected peak in daily deaths: on January 18, 2,297 people are likely to die at current rate of infection and prevention. practice.